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Archive for the ‘Sports betting’ Category

Staking systems: Are sports betting systems lucrative?

Tuesday, July 29th, 2008

Staking systems are about where or when to place a bet, for instance bet red or black, pick the pony “she is sure to win” or “damned unlucky”, bet Banker or Player in Baccarat and so on. Staking systems range greatly in terms of sophistication but generally aim to take the emotion out of picking a side by making it systematic.

But you should be careful. There are lots of so called gambling experts sharing with us their staking systems. But in the long-run, there are very few, if none, successful betting strategies.

Follow the Shoe

Follow the Shoe is a simple staking system where your next bet is on the last winner. As an example, in Baccarat if the Banker won the last hand then the next bet would be on Banker. The argument for the Follow the Shoe staking system is that it can catch winning streaks on either side.

Avant Dernier

The Avant Dernier is another popular Baccarat staking system, where your next bet is on the second last winner. So if we had the results Banker win, Banker win, Player win; then our next bet would be on Banker. The Avant Dernier system works well when the results come in longer streaks or alternating patterns. That is, a 5 streak run of Banker wins or an alternating pattern like Banker, Player, Banker, Player, etc. The Avant Dernier System begins to lose when there is alot of ‘double chopping’, where results come in pairs like Banker, Banker, Player, Player, Banker, Banker.

Regression Modelling

Regression modeling is a sophisticated statistical approach to forecasting future events. In simple terms, a data set of historical results is regressed on an econometric model of factors. As an example, we could model horse speed based on historical data including factors such as track conditions, age of horse, jockey, recent health etc etc. By then predicting each horses speed, which can assess the probabilities of each horse winning. Based on this and the current odds wagered, you let the model decide whether to lay, back or stay out of a race.

Regression modeling is the approach used by the largest horse racing syndicates but the power of the model is limited to the quality and size of the dataset used.

Parlay System

Commonly used in horse racing, the Parlay system aims at taking the winnings from one bet, and investing those on the following bet. Being a positive progression system, this system can be regarded as being reasonably safe. Players using this technique generally aim for a winning situation that will occur in a quite distant future, as in theory it should protect the accumulated winnings.

1-3-2-6 System

The 1-3-2-6 system is a positive progression system that takes for granted that you should be able to win four times in a row. If bets are categorized on a scale of one to six units (six being the highest bet), your first bet should be 1 unit, the second 3 units, the third 2 units, and the fourth 6 units. Despite the mathematics involved in this system, it is fairly straightforward. All in all, the system offers insurance by altering the bets each time, and taking money away when you win at particular moments. If you end up winning four times in a succession, it is very good opportunity to substantially increase your bankroll. However, a question still remains to be answered: it is equally as likely that you will lose four times in a row?

Horse racing systems

Horse racing betting systems are based on a number of criteria, some of which include analysis of the horses’ form.

Often horse racing systems are based on financial systems such as hedging (betting on multiple outcomes in a race) and arbitrage (lay the horse a low price and back it at a high price). Other horse racing systems exist which are based on items such as horse name, jockey form, trainer form, and lane draw. Modern horse racing systems can rely on specific betting possibilities only offered on betting exchanges.

Loss recovery systems such as Martingale can also be applied to horse racing.

Tutorial - Different types of sports bets

Wednesday, July 9th, 2008

Here is an introduction to the basic types of sports bets available to the sports gambler.

Simple bets (1X2, 1-2)

You have to predict the team or player who will win the event.

Double chance betting (1X, 12, X2)

You have to predict the team or player who will win the event, except you have the right to two choices, which increases your chances.

Double, triple, multiple bets, combo bets

A multiple bet or combo allows you to combine the results of several events into one single bet. Your winnings will be determined by your wager, multiplied by the product of different combined odds. A combo offers you the chance to have spectacular winnings, but for that you must correctly predict all the results included in your bet.

Over/Under

This type of bet is based on the total number of goals or points scored by the two teams in a match.

Exact score/Bet on sets

This bet predicts the score at the end of the match and is based on the number of goals scored (football) by each team or the number of sets won (tennis) by each player.

Half time/End of match

Guess the score at the end of the 1st and 2nd half time. Example: If the match is a draw at 2-2 and was 1-1 at half time, all the bets placed on a no score will be winning bets. Bets on all the other results will be lost.

Handicaps

The weaker team will benefit from a goal/points advantage, while the favorite has the same number of goals/points withdrawn. Incidentally, the goals/points handicap will be added to the final result, to give the result of the bet.

Asian Handicaps

They work like simple handicaps, but there is no possibility of a draw. The head start of the weaker team is not a whole number or all the wagers are cancelled in the event of a draw.

One-to-one

You have to predict which of the two competitors will win the event or have the better time.

Winner/ placed

This bet gives you the chance to bet on the winner of a tournament, championship or event. Betting on a competitor?s final place is also possible.

Introduction to sports betting

Tuesday, July 8th, 2008

Sports betting is the general activity of predicting sports results by making a wager on the outcome (result) of a sporting event. The legality and general acceptance of sports betting varies from nation to nation. In the United States, the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act of 1994 makes illegal to operate a “betting, gambling or wagering scheme”, except for in the states of Delaware, Nevada, and Oregon. Nevada, however, is the only state currently allowing sports gambling, while in many European nations bookmaking (the profession of accepting sports wagers) is highly regulated but not criminalized. Proponents of legalized sports betting generally regard it as a hobby for sports fans that increases their interest in particular sporting events, thus benefiting the leagues, teams and players they bet on through higher attendances and television audiences. Opponents fear that, over and above the general ramifications of gambling, it threatens the integrity of amateur and professional sport, the history of which includes numerous attempts by sports gamblers to fix matches, although proponents counter that legitimate bookmakers will invariably fight corruption just as fiercely as governing bodies and law enforcement do. Most sports bettors are overall losers as the bookmakers odds are fairly efficient. However, there are professional sports bettors that make a good income betting sports.

The main object of sports betting is to beat the “Oddsmakers” or the “Odds Compilers” and win some money. Additionally, placing a bet on your favorite sport event makes the game exciting and more enjoyable.

Betting is done through Sportsbooks (US) or Bookmakers (UK) entities that accept bets. You can bet on the outcome of several sporting events, such as: baseball, basketball, football, tennis, hockey, snooker and soccer games.

To place a sports bet, you go to a sportsbook, physical or online. You could also bet over the phone with many sportsbooks. Note that a sports book or sportsbook is not the same as an oddsmaker. The sportsbook simply accepts sports bets. An oddsmaker is a person who sets the betting odds.

You need to state what you are betting on by making a selection, the type of bet and the amount you are wagering. Your selection will obviously depend on the odds offered, so you will want to examine the range of odds available before you make a decision.