Staking systems: Are sports betting systems lucrative?
Tuesday, July 29th, 2008
Staking systems are about where or when to place a bet, for instance bet red or black, pick the pony “she is sure to win” or “damned unlucky”, bet Banker or Player in Baccarat and so on. Staking systems range greatly in terms of sophistication but generally aim to take the emotion out of picking a side by making it systematic.
But you should be careful. There are lots of so called gambling experts sharing with us their staking systems. But in the long-run, there are very few, if none, successful betting strategies.
Follow the Shoe
Follow the Shoe is a simple staking system where your next bet is on the last winner. As an example, in Baccarat if the Banker won the last hand then the next bet would be on Banker. The argument for the Follow the Shoe staking system is that it can catch winning streaks on either side.
Avant Dernier
The Avant Dernier is another popular Baccarat staking system, where your next bet is on the second last winner. So if we had the results Banker win, Banker win, Player win; then our next bet would be on Banker. The Avant Dernier system works well when the results come in longer streaks or alternating patterns. That is, a 5 streak run of Banker wins or an alternating pattern like Banker, Player, Banker, Player, etc. The Avant Dernier System begins to lose when there is alot of ‘double chopping’, where results come in pairs like Banker, Banker, Player, Player, Banker, Banker.
Regression Modelling
Regression modeling is a sophisticated statistical approach to forecasting future events. In simple terms, a data set of historical results is regressed on an econometric model of factors. As an example, we could model horse speed based on historical data including factors such as track conditions, age of horse, jockey, recent health etc etc. By then predicting each horses speed, which can assess the probabilities of each horse winning. Based on this and the current odds wagered, you let the model decide whether to lay, back or stay out of a race.
Regression modeling is the approach used by the largest horse racing syndicates but the power of the model is limited to the quality and size of the dataset used.
Parlay System
Commonly used in horse racing, the Parlay system aims at taking the winnings from one bet, and investing those on the following bet. Being a positive progression system, this system can be regarded as being reasonably safe. Players using this technique generally aim for a winning situation that will occur in a quite distant future, as in theory it should protect the accumulated winnings.
1-3-2-6 System
The 1-3-2-6 system is a positive progression system that takes for granted that you should be able to win four times in a row. If bets are categorized on a scale of one to six units (six being the highest bet), your first bet should be 1 unit, the second 3 units, the third 2 units, and the fourth 6 units. Despite the mathematics involved in this system, it is fairly straightforward. All in all, the system offers insurance by altering the bets each time, and taking money away when you win at particular moments. If you end up winning four times in a succession, it is very good opportunity to substantially increase your bankroll. However, a question still remains to be answered: it is equally as likely that you will lose four times in a row?
Horse racing systems
Horse racing betting systems are based on a number of criteria, some of which include analysis of the horses’ form.
Often horse racing systems are based on financial systems such as hedging (betting on multiple outcomes in a race) and arbitrage (lay the horse a low price and back it at a high price). Other horse racing systems exist which are based on items such as horse name, jockey form, trainer form, and lane draw. Modern horse racing systems can rely on specific betting possibilities only offered on betting exchanges.
Loss recovery systems such as Martingale can also be applied to horse racing.