Venue: Villa Park
Date: Sunday, 9 November
Kick-off: 1500 GMT

Middlesbrough have a good recent record at Villa Park, where they  two wins, two draws and just a single defeat in the last five. Martin O’Neill’s men had to travel to Newcastle and Prague in the last week so Boro should have the edge in terms of freshness.

Aston Villa are unbeaten at home this season but Middlesbrough are worth a small bet at 9/2.

Betting Verdict: Middlesbrough to get at least one point from this clash

Blackburn vs Chelsea

Venue: Ewood Park
Date: Sunday, 9 November
Kick-off: 1330 GMT

The Premier League’s draw specialists, Blackburn Rovers host The Blues, on the 60th birthday of Chelsea’s manager Luis Felipe Scolari. The match brings together the weakest defence and sharpest attack in the highest league (going into this 12th round of fixtures).

The Londoners have twice as many points as Blackburn (26 to 13), and are aiming to uphold the Premier League’s one remaining 100% away record, and the only unbeaten top-flight away record in 2008.

Chelsea are undefeated in six league and cup matches with Blackburn over the past two seasons.

Chelsea look a strong bet on the handicap.

Betting Verdict: Chelsea to beat the one goal handicap

Possible correct scores: 1-3; 2-4

Fulham v Newcastle

Venue: Craven Cottage
Date: Sunday, 9 November
Kick-off: 1600 GMT

Fulham have failed to win six of their last seven Premier League matches, and now face a Newcastle side chasing a third successive league win.

The Magpies head for London eager to improve on two successive defeats in the capital and gain their first away win of this Premier League season.

The Cottagers have only picked up two Premier League points from a last possible 24 against North-East clubs, since beating Newcastle 2-1 at home on 3 February 2007.

Newcastle did the double over Fulham last season, reversing Fulham’s achievement in the previous campaign.

It’s a tough game to call from a betting perspective.

Betting verdict: Draw

Possible correct score: 1- 1

Man City v Tottenham

Venue: City of Manchester Stadium
Date: Sunday, 9 November
Kick-off: 1500 GMT

Spurs drew 4-4 with Arsenal in their last away game and have netted 12 in four games since Harry Redknapp took over. Darren Bent has found the back of the net in three of those four matches, including a memorable hat-trick against Dinamo Zagreb last time out, and has also registered in his last two away games in the Premier League.

City have suffered successive 0-2 defeats and are in danger of tumbling to their longest losing run since ending last season with three consecutive defeats.  A home defeat would also mean Manchester City had reached an unwanted milestone. It would be their 1,500th loss in League football

According to the head to head stats, Manchester City’s only victories in 22 Premier League games against Tottenham were 5-2 on 22 October 1994 at home, 0-2 at the Lane on 18 April 2003 and the 2-1 home triumph eight months ago. Tottenham dismissed the Citizens on their way to winning the Carling Cup last season; a 0-2 victory at Eastlands in the quarter-finals on 18 December 2007.

Given those stats, a high scoring draw wouldn’t surprise anyone.

Betting Verdict: Draw

Possible correct scores: 3-3, 4-4

Fintan Gavin, aged 40, won €900,000 for finishing in an impressive second place in a field of 620 players at the €8,000 entry European Poker Tour (EPT) event in Barcelona.

He almost outlasted a field of 620 players in the event, but was eventually eliminated following a brief head-to-head battle with the winner, a German professional Sebastian Ruthenberg.

The two players negotiated a deal which netted Mr Gavin a total payout of just over €900,000, while the winner took home the EPT trophy and €1,361,000 in prize money.

Mr. Gavin currently works in the poker business in the northwest, where he runs poker events in the Eglinton Casino in Galway and the surrounding area.

Like many of the big winners in the world of poker in recent years, Mr Gavin qualified for the event by winning a small online satellite tournament, the prize for which was a €12,000 package to cover his entry fee and travel costs.

“I never thought going over there I would get anywhere near as far as I did. There were 620 players taking part, including the top poker players in Europe. It was something else to reach the final table,” he said.

Despite his big pay-day, he said he was not considering taking up the game professionally and would continue organising rather than competing in events.

Fintan Gavin is one of many Irish poker players to have made a big impact on the poker scene in recent years.

Belfast player Marty Smyth won a $10,000 entry pot-limit Omaha event at the World Series of Poker in Las Vegas in July, for which he received $859,532 (€600,000).

Ireland has produced one world champion poker player. In 1999, prior to the boom in the popularity of the game, which was brought about by the advent of online and televised poker, Dublin businessman Noel Furlong conquered a field of 393 in the World Series of Poker main event winning $1 million (€695,000).

Dublin-based player Andrew Black became a familiar face in international poker circles when he made his way to the final table of the World Series of Poker main event in 2005. He eventually finished fifth out of 5,619 players, winning $1.75 million (€1.3 million) and has since continued to perform well in big poker events.

Newcomers can take this great opportunity to win prizes up to £775 in cash until December, 24 2008. Taking part in these contests is free of charge and all punters do not stake or risk anything of value other than their personal efforts of knowledge and their personal time.

Founded by Win at Max Associates LLC the www.ExpertBet.com is the newest website world wide available which offers cash money-prizes without no fees registration to its users, after the big brother’s website has arrived 2 years ago www.TipsterPicks.com which gave more than $US 2000 lately to many tipsters world wide.

An ExpertBet representative commented “We’re making history here at www.ExpertBet.com by rewarding all football fans out there, hosting the biggest free football contest worldwide available for the greatest football league in the world England Premiere League. These excellent treatments are exciting and we’re very much looking forward to bigger prizes in the future.”

There are two kinds of contests at www.expertbet.com.

1. The monthly contest brings money prize £55 in cash to the best punter who earned the most profit units in the monthly punters’ classification. Punters have to place at least 15 bet tickets in the current month in at least 2 different weeks (Monday to Sunday). The end of the current month profit must be at least 5.55 units. All monthly cash prizes (£55) will be paid in the 5th day of the next month. Any disputes or complaints will be accepted until the 4th of the next month.
2. The Expert Bet contest brings money prize £555 in cash to the best punter who earned the most profit units until the fixtures from the Saturday 20th December 2008. Punters have to place at least 55 bet tickets in the 4 months period (September to December 2008) in at least 7 different weeks (Monday to Sunday). The end of the current period profit must be at least 25.5 units. For this contest any disputes or complaints will be accepted anytime until the 24th December 2008, 12:00 GMT.

For both contests stakes are set to 1 (one) unit as default. Punters can place from the entire betting offer only “single” bet tickets not combo or system. The betting offer is with Asian Handicap and Over/Under odds. The latest time when punters can place a bet ticket on a specific event is 25-30 minutes before schedule starting time. If there is more than one winner, the prize will be equally split between the winners.

Fore more information regarding these 2008 Premiere League betting contests please visit: ExpertBet Contest

But you should be careful. There are lots of so called gambling experts sharing with us their staking systems. But in the long-run, there are very few, if none, successful betting strategies.

Follow the Shoe

Follow the Shoe is a simple staking system where your next bet is on the last winner. As an example, in Baccarat if the Banker won the last hand then the next bet would be on Banker. The argument for the Follow the Shoe staking system is that it can catch winning streaks on either side.

Avant Dernier

The Avant Dernier is another popular Baccarat staking system, where your next bet is on the second last winner. So if we had the results Banker win, Banker win, Player win; then our next bet would be on Banker. The Avant Dernier system works well when the results come in longer streaks or alternating patterns. That is, a 5 streak run of Banker wins or an alternating pattern like Banker, Player, Banker, Player, etc. The Avant Dernier System begins to lose when there is alot of ‘double chopping’, where results come in pairs like Banker, Banker, Player, Player, Banker, Banker.

Regression Modelling

Regression modeling is a sophisticated statistical approach to forecasting future events. In simple terms, a data set of historical results is regressed on an econometric model of factors. As an example, we could model horse speed based on historical data including factors such as track conditions, age of horse, jockey, recent health etc etc. By then predicting each horses speed, which can assess the probabilities of each horse winning. Based on this and the current odds wagered, you let the model decide whether to lay, back or stay out of a race.

Regression modeling is the approach used by the largest horse racing syndicates but the power of the model is limited to the quality and size of the dataset used.

Parlay System

Commonly used in horse racing, the Parlay system aims at taking the winnings from one bet, and investing those on the following bet. Being a positive progression system, this system can be regarded as being reasonably safe. Players using this technique generally aim for a winning situation that will occur in a quite distant future, as in theory it should protect the accumulated winnings.

1-3-2-6 System

The 1-3-2-6 system is a positive progression system that takes for granted that you should be able to win four times in a row. If bets are categorized on a scale of one to six units (six being the highest bet), your first bet should be 1 unit, the second 3 units, the third 2 units, and the fourth 6 units. Despite the mathematics involved in this system, it is fairly straightforward. All in all, the system offers insurance by altering the bets each time, and taking money away when you win at particular moments. If you end up winning four times in a succession, it is very good opportunity to substantially increase your bankroll. However, a question still remains to be answered: it is equally as likely that you will lose four times in a row?

Horse racing systems

Horse racing betting systems are based on a number of criteria, some of which include analysis of the horses’ form.

Often horse racing systems are based on financial systems such as hedging (betting on multiple outcomes in a race) and arbitrage (lay the horse a low price and back it at a high price). Other horse racing systems exist which are based on items such as horse name, jockey form, trainer form, and lane draw. Modern horse racing systems can rely on specific betting possibilities only offered on betting exchanges.

Loss recovery systems such as Martingale can also be applied to horse racing.

Attorney General Tom Corbett said the investigation focused on Nicholas Cimino, 49, also known as “Nicky the Hat”, who was the head of a southeastern Pennsylvania “large-scale” bookmaking operation from 2002 until March 2007 that included an illegal casino located at 431 MacDade Blvd., Folsom, Delaware County, where poker games, illegal betting on horse races and other gambling activity occurred. As part of the illegal gambling organization, Nicky the Hat also ran a Web site for online sports betting, and accepted sports wagers from 800 bettors without computer access. Gregory “King” Triantafillou, Daniel Diedrich, Victor “Vic” Novelli and Spiro “Bart” Barbalois were allegedly employed to accept sports wagers, collect money from bettors’ losses, and pay bettors for winning bets. The domain name of the sports betting website has not been released.

According to Attorney General Tom Corbett, one of Cimino’s principle debt collectors was identified as Joseph Pizza who was responsible for receiving payments from individuals who owed the organization money. Agents involved in the operation dubbed “Delco Nostra” said that Pizza was also allegedly responsible for “laying off” bets from the Cimino organization to other bookmaking organizations in order to minimize the risk of loss to the organization.

According to the grand jury, Cimino’s organization had a close association with the Philadelphia organized crime family through Louis “Bent Finger Lou” Monacello. Corbett said that Cimino allegedly paid Monacello a “tax” every month in order to be allowed to operate his illegal gambling casino.

The grand jury found that Cimino used the associates of his bookmaking operation to collect debts and had a reputation in the gambling community for threatening or using force to pressure individuals to pay.

Grand jury testimony revealed that Cimino’s source of his illegal income was hidden by the purchase of numerous real estate properties in Delaware County and by using Pizza and two other individuals, Ralph “Ralphie head” Abbruzzi and Robert Beck, to purchase winning Pennsylvania state lottery tickets, which were cashed in to show a “legitimate” source of income.

On at least one occasion, Monacello had a debtor’s car vandalized and on several other occasions sent individuals to a debtor’s house with the intent of assaulting them into paying Cimino.

Attorney General Tom Corbett added that Cimino and Monacello were allegedly aware on the grand jury’s ongoing investigation and Monacello allegedly encouraged witnesses to perjure themselves during testimony.

“Through this investigation, we successfully dismantled a major illegal gambling enterprise operating in Southeastern Pennsylvania,” Corbett said. “And, with the arrest of Louis Monacello, we have taken into custody a well-known member of the Philadelphia organized crime family.”

Corbett stated that the investigation is continuing and more arrests are expected and thanked the Pennsylvania State Police and the FBI for their work on the case.

The case will be prosecuted in Delaware County by Chief Deputy Attorney General Erik Olsen of the Attorney General’s Organized Crime Section.

Researchers at UNLV and the University of Western Ontario released a new study which suggests that online casinos can be harsher environments than the bricks-and-mortar casinos frequented by Las Vegas inhabitants. The study is based on 90-minute interviews with 30 Las Vegas gamblers and researchers focused on a negative aspect of online gambling which has been ignored in the political discourse: web gambling can be a negative environment where foul-mouthed players bully and harass their online opponents, mainly in gambling chat rooms.

One of the participants, Donna (last names were withheld by researchers to protect their identities) reported being harassed while gambling online, including by one player who even stalked her by phone. She said she learned to ignore the live chats that accompany online games but still gambled only when her husband was sitting nearby to “protect” her.

“When I clicked off (a poker game), I was crying,” Donna told researchers. “I let a complete stranger who was online, who didn’t know me, I didn’t know him, hurt me. If it was in person, it would be different.”

Other online gamblers told researchers they were often called derogatory names in the accompanying chat area after winning a poker hand.

“Losing money can inspire bad behavior online, but bullies also abound in bricks-and-mortar casinos,” said Steven McLoughlin, a volunteer online moderator for Two Plus Two, a Las Vegas gambling book publisher that runs a gambling discussion forum attracting some 18,000 posts daily.

Casino gamblers in the study stated they felt more comfortable being around other people, seeing familiar faces and interacting, though superficially, with employees. Some of them preferred visiting casinos because they offered an escape with stimulating surroundings.

“Sometimes the floor people will come up and touch me, or ask how you (are) doing, put their hand on my shoulders, rub my shoulders for good luck … it makes me feel good,” said Lorraine, a casino gambler.

Online gambler Cleo acknowledged to researchers having an addiction problem. According to her own sayings, she chased her losses shortly after claiming to feel more in control of her gambling: “I took five times what I’d (initially) lost and lost it … It depressed me.”

Coalition Chairman Dr. Guy Clark stated that banning Internet gambling makes more sense than regulation because bricks-and-mortar casinos aren’t able of keeping kids from hanging around casinos and can not restrict gambling addicts’ access.

“What (prohibitionists) are basically saying is that ‘We want the status quo’ when the status quo is that millions of people are gambling online, without any regulations to protect consumers,” added Michael Waxman, a spokesman for the Safe and Secure Internet Gambling Initiative.

Kathryn LaTour, co-author and UNLV associate professor,  has conducted several studies on consumers’ motivations and supports regulation. But she seems to be more interested in exploring the range of experiences reported by gamblers in Las Vegas, a town where gambling is a fact of life.

“It’s interesting that we have all these options for gambling in Las Vegas, but these people really prefer being in their pajamas and sitting at their home computers,” she said.

In fact Dr. Jeffrey L. Derevensky believes that the regulation of online gambling is an opportunity to put in place safeguards to combat problem and underage gambling.

On June 25, 2008, Rep. Bachus, erroneously cited research at McGill, claiming that one-third of college students who gambled online attempted suicide.

“This assertion, which is reportedly based upon our empirical research, is not predicated upon any factual evidence,” responded Derevensky in an interview with the Safe and Secure Internet Gambling Initiative. “None of the studies conducted with adolescents or college students, to the best of my knowledge, have looked at a connection between Internet wagering and suicide attempts.”

These same concerns were raised by Derevensky in a letter sent last week to Reps. Bachus and Barney Frank (D-Mass.). Derevensky believes that the Congress has the opportunity to better protect consumers in a regulated environment. “If Congress is serious about minimizing the threat posed by Internet gambling, it should look to create an environment where Internet gambling operators are required to put in place safeguards that protect against compulsive and underage gambling.”

Last week, a study conducted jointly by the University of Western Ontario and University of Nevada, Las Vegas called for the legalization and regulation of online gambling.

“Just as legalized commercial gambling in casinos allows for governments to regulate it, so, too, could the legalization of online gambling allow for better regulation and attempts to reduce the growth of problem gamblers,” said June Cotte, associate professor at the University of Western Ontario, as reported by Poker News.

Safeguards currently available in the industry proved to be effective in protecting consumers against compulsive gambling. Existing technology and security controls include the ability to control the amount of money wagered, set limits on amounts bet and amounts lost, restrict the duration that someone can play, identify and stop players whose gambling patterns seem out of the ordinary, and allow for consumers to be excluded from online gambling.

“It is disappointing that Rep. Bachus is using scare tactics and false claims in an attempt to justify why Congress should limit my ability to gamble online,” said Jeffrey Sandman, spokesman for the Safe and Secure Internet Gambling Initiative. “We are encouraged by the academic community’s support of Internet gambling regulation. They emphasize the important point that consumers will be better protected if there are safeguards put in place to combat underage and problem gambling.”

Additionally, Rep. McDermott introduced, last week, the Investing in our Human Resources Act (H.R.6051), which states that new revenue generated by regulated Internet gambling activities would be directed to be spent on job training for those in the declining sectors of the economy and educational assistance for foster care youth.

“Though I support the dedication of resources to raise awareness about problem gambling, I encourage Congress to also provide appropriate funding for research, treatment and the prevention of problem gambling,” added Derevensky.

The concept is also sometimes referred to as the overround, although this is technically different, being the percentage the event book is above 100% whereas the vigorish is the bookmaker’s percentage profit on the total stakes made on the event. For example, 20% overround is vigorish of 16 2/3%. The connecting formulae are V = OR/(1 OR) and OR = V/(1 - V).

It is simplest to assume that vigorish is factored in proportionally to the true odds, although this need not be the case. Under proportional vigorish, a moneyline odds bet listed at -100 vs -100 without vigorish (fair odds) could become -110 vs -110 with vigorish factored in. Under disproportional vigorish, it could become -120 vs 100.

Common misconceptions about vigorish are that it is paid by only the “loser”, only the “winner”, or both in all circumstances. A claim on when and to what extent a gambler pays vigorish fees, however, cannot be abstracted from an individual gambler’s behavior. A gambler’s behavior with respect to different odds on an event must first be defined and only then can a determination be made on how the vigorish affects him when he wins and loses.

Example

A fair odds bet: Two people want to bet on opposing sides of an event with even odds. They are going to make the bet between each other without using the services of a bookmaker. Each person is willing to risk $100 to win $100. After each person pays their $100, there is a total of $200 in the pot. The person who loses receives nothing and the winner receives the full $200.

By contrast, when using a sportsbook with the odds set at -110 vs -110 with vigorish factored in, each person would have to risk or “lay” $110 to win $100. The $10 is, in effect, a bookmaker’s commission for taking the action. This $10 is not “in play” and cannot be doubled by the winning bettor. It can only be lost. A losing bettor simply loses his $110. A winning bettor wins back his original $110, plus his $100 winnings, for a total of $210.

Simple bets (1X2, 1-2)

You have to predict the team or player who will win the event.

Double chance betting (1X, 12, X2)

You have to predict the team or player who will win the event, except you have the right to two choices, which increases your chances.

Double, triple, multiple bets, combo bets

A multiple bet or combo allows you to combine the results of several events into one single bet. Your winnings will be determined by your wager, multiplied by the product of different combined odds. A combo offers you the chance to have spectacular winnings, but for that you must correctly predict all the results included in your bet.

Over/Under

This type of bet is based on the total number of goals or points scored by the two teams in a match.

Exact score/Bet on sets

This bet predicts the score at the end of the match and is based on the number of goals scored (football) by each team or the number of sets won (tennis) by each player.

Half time/End of match

Guess the score at the end of the 1st and 2nd half time. Example: If the match is a draw at 2-2 and was 1-1 at half time, all the bets placed on a no score will be winning bets. Bets on all the other results will be lost.

Handicaps

The weaker team will benefit from a goal/points advantage, while the favorite has the same number of goals/points withdrawn. Incidentally, the goals/points handicap will be added to the final result, to give the result of the bet.

Asian Handicaps

They work like simple handicaps, but there is no possibility of a draw. The head start of the weaker team is not a whole number or all the wagers are cancelled in the event of a draw.

One-to-one

You have to predict which of the two competitors will win the event or have the better time.

Winner/ placed

This bet gives you the chance to bet on the winner of a tournament, championship or event. Betting on a competitor?s final place is also possible.